​A total of 99 per cent of Parties outlined domestic mitigation measures as key instruments for achieving mitigation targets for their NDCs and/or for priority areas, such as energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, AFOLU and waste. Parties communicated mitigation measures most frequently in the priority area of energy supply (95 per cent of Parties), followed by AFOLU (89 per cent) and transport (87 per cent). Parties identified mitigation options costing less than USD 20/t CO2 eq, which are projected in the contribution of Working Group III to the AR6 to account for more than half of the total emission reduction potential that is required for being on 1.5 °C pathways with no or limited overshoot by 2030. Such mitigation options with the highest estimated net emission reduction potential (in parentheses) include: Share of Parties referring to specific priority areas and mitigation options for achieving conditional mitigation targets with high mitigation potential costing below USD 20/t CO2 eq and/or USD 100/t CO2 eq in 2030 in nationally determined contributions A total of 46 per cent of Parties considered mitigation co-benefits resulting from their adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans. In their new or updated NDCs more Parties reported on mitigation co-benefits of adaptation action and economic diversification plans, including information on specific projects, measures and activities with the resulting co-benefits, compared with the information in their previous NDCs. Similarly, more Parties provided information on their consideration of social and economic consequences of response measures, and of just transition and/or economic diversification. Adaptation actions and economic diversification plans with mitigation co-benefits include afforestation and reforestation activities, climate-smart agriculture, reducing food waste, vertical farming, adapting coastal ecosystems, conservation plans for protected areas, nature-based solutions, increasing the share of renewable sources in energy generation, improving energy efficiency, carbon dioxide capture and storage, fuel switch and fuel price reforms in the transport sector, and moving to circular economy for better waste management. Parties continued to report ocean-based measures to demonstrate climate action. Of the Parties that included an adaptation component in their NDCs, 31 per cent identified ocean ecosystems as a priority sector for adaptation and 13 per cent have quantified targets for fisheries; while 12 per cent included reference to human- and climate-induced ocean changes such as acidification, extreme weather events, sea level rise, storms and drought. Of the 21 per cent of Parties that included information on ocean or blue carbon as a priority sector for reducing GHG emissions, 71 per cent mentioned specific ocean-based mitigation measures. 

A total of 81 per cent of Parties included an adaptation component in their NDCs and 13 per cent of the adaptation components were designated as adaptation communications. Parties provided information in particular on adaptation-related research; risks and vulnerabilities; adaptation strategies, policies and plans; sectoral adaptation measures; contingency measures; synergies with mitigation and other global frameworks; and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation.  In comparison with Parties’ previous NDCs, more of the NDCs contain adaptation information. The adaptation components of the NDCs, where included, indicate an increased focus on national adaptation planning, in particular on the process to formulate and implement NAPs. The new or updated NDCs include, in comparison with the same Parties’ previous NDCs, more information on time-bound quantitative adaptation targets and the associated indicator frameworks, more specific information on the contribution of adaptation efforts towards achieving the SDGs, and more specific information on synergies and co benefits between adaptation and mitigation. Synergies between efforts in adaptation priority sectors and efforts towards the Sustainable Development Goals identified in nationally determined contributions In terms of adaptation priorities, the NDCs illustrate that Parties continue to focus on food production and nutrition security, water resources, terrestrial and wetland ecosystems, key economic sectors and services, and human health; followed by disaster risk management, coastal and low-lying areas, urban areas and human habitats, livelihoods and poverty, and ocean ecosystems.   Share of adaptation components of nationally determined contributions referring to specific adaptation priority areas and sectors

A total of 97 per cent of Parties explained their approach to NDC preparation and implementation, and 59 per cent of Parties linked their NDCs to their commitment to transitioning to a sustainable and/or low-carbon and resilient economy, taking into account social, environmental and economic factors as well as the SDGs. In addition, 48 per cent of Parties indicated that they have integrated their NDC targets, goals and policies into national legislative, regulatory and planning processes as a means of ensuring implementation.  Furthermore, 66 per cent of Parties highlighted policy coherence and synergies between their domestic mitigation measures  and development priorities, which include the SDGs and, for some that submitted new or updated NDCs, LT-LEDS and green recovery from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.  Of the 79 per cent of Parties that referred to formal arrangements in place for domestic stakeholder consultation, 93 per cent indicated that they conducted consultations and engagement in an inclusive and participatory manner and 81 per cent of those specifically referenced gender-sensitive consultations. Parties are increasingly  recognizing gender integration as a means to enhance the ambition and effectiveness of their climate action: 82 per cent of Parties provided information related to gender in their NDCs and 48 per cent affirmed that they will take gender into account in implementing them.  Of the Parties that referenced gender, 32 per cent had not included reference to gender in their previous NDCs and 28 per cent considered gender to a similar extent to previously. Of the Parties that referenced gender in their previous NDCs, 28 per cent elaborated more on the topic in their updated NDCs. Reference to gender in nationally determined contributions In 60 per cent of the latest available NDCs, Parties recognized the rights and important role of Indigenous Peoples, as well as the role of local communities, in relation to climate adaptation efforts. They acknowledged the vulnerabilities faced by Indigenous Peoples and local communities, emphasized the importance of strengthening climate efforts through incorporation of traditional knowledge, Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge systems, and highlighted the need to enhance these groups’ participation in and contributions to climate action. In addition, 98 per cent of Parties provided information on using one or more ACE elements  to promote implementation of mitigation and adaptation activities, and in their new or updated NDCs Parties generally communicated more clearly and in more detail on general principles, past achievements, future commitments, and needs and gaps in relation to ACE.

Projected GHG Emissions Level ​Total global GHG emissions (without LULUCF) taking into account implementation of the latest NDCs  are estimated to be around 53.0 (51.4–54.5) Gt CO2 eq in 2025  and 51.5 (48.3–54.7) Gt CO2 eq in 2030,  which are:   Projected range and progression of emission levels according to nationally determined contributions In comparison, the total GHG emission levels resulting from implementation of NDCs (those submitted by 25 September 2023) presented in the previous version of this report were estimated to be around 53.2 (51.6–54.8) Gt CO2 eq in 2025 and 51.6 (48.3–54.8) Gt CO2 eq in 2030. Those levels are very similar (at 0.2 Gt CO2 eq higher for 2025 and 0.1 Gt CO2 eq higher for 2030) to the levels presented in this report, the estimates of which reflect a slight increase in aggregate NDC ambition level and updated emission data. The projected total global GHG emission level taking into account full implementation of all latest NDCs continues to imply a possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030, with the lower bound of the 2030 emission level (48.3 Gt CO2 eq) estimated to be up to 8.6 per cent below the 2019 emission level (52.9 Gt CO2 eq) and 6.0 per cent below the lower bound of the estimated 2025 emission level (51.4 Gt CO2 eq). However, in order to achieve that peaking, the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; availability of market-based mechanisms; and absorptive capacity of forests and other ecosystems. Historical and projected total global emissions according to nationally determined contribution Taking into account the implementation of NDCs up until 2030, projected global mean temperatures are subject to significant uncertainty owing to the range of emission levels estimated for 2030 resulting from implementation of NDCs (including whether conditional elements are implemented or not), the range of illustrative emission extensions beyond 2030 and inherent climate system uncertainties. The best estimate of peak temperature in the twenty-first century (projected mostly for 2100 when temperature continues to rise) is in the range of 2.1–2.8 °C depending on the underlying assumptions. In the context of the carbon budget consistent with 50 per cent likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (500 Gt CO2), cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up 86 per cent of the remaining carbon budget, leaving a post-2030 carbon budget of around 70 Gt CO2, which is equivalent to approximately two years of projected total global CO2 emissions by 2030. Similarly, in the context of the carbon budget consistent with a likely chance of keeping warming below 2 °C (estimated by the IPCC to be 1,150 Gt CO2 from 2020 onward), cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up around 37 per cent of the remaining carbon budget. For comparison, total global CO2 emissions between 1850 and 2020 are estimated by the IPCC  to have amounted to 2,390 (2,150–2,630) Gt CO2. A total of 50 per cent of Parties provided information on long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets for up until and beyond 2050. Their total GHG emission level is estimated to be 39.2 (37.2–41.1) Gt CO2 eq in 2030, which is 4 per cent higher than in 2010 (with a range from 1 per cent lower to 9 per cent higher) and 6 (1–10) per cent lower than in 2019.  Mindful of the inherent uncertainty of such long-term estimates, and the need for full implementation of NDCs and LT-LEDS, the information indicates that these Parties’ total GHG emission level could be 63 (59–67) per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019 and their annual per capita emissions would be 2.4 (2.1–2.6) t CO2 eq by 2050. Under scenarios of limiting warming to likely below 2 °C (with over 67 per cent likelihood), annual per capita emissions are 2.4 (1.6–3.1) t CO2 eq; hence the estimated long-term per capita emissions of these Parties are at a level consistent with 2 °C scenarios. However, for scenarios of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with 50 per cent likelihood by 2100) and achieving net zero CO2 emissions around 2050 and net zero GHG emissions this century, annual per capita emissions by 2050 are required to be two to three times lower, at 1.3 (0.6–2.1) t CO2 eq.

Targets Parties provided information on mitigation targets as well as mitigation co-benefits resulting from adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. The mitigation targets range from economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets to strategies, policies, plans and actions for low-emission development. In their NDCs: Types of mitigation target and share of Parties that communicated them in nationally determined contributions Sectors and greenhouse gases covered by Parties that communicated them in nationally determined contributions A total of 93 per cent of Parties communicated an NDC implementation period of until 2030, while 7 per cent specified an implementation period of until 2025, 2035, 2040 or 2050. While 54 per cent of Parties identified 1 January 2021 as their starting date for NDC implementation, 29 per cent indicated that they started implementing their NDC in or before 2020 and 6 per cent mentioned starting implementation in 2022. In addition, 96 per cent of Parties provided quantified information on their mitigation targets and reference points. Of the Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs, 84 per cent updated the basis for defining their targets, including reference points and/or ‘business as usual’ scenarios. Such updates lead to higher-quality NDCs and, for some Parties, to significant changes in the estimated emission levels for 2025 and 2030. Share of Parties indicating in nationally determined contributions the intention to use or possibility of using specific scopes of voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement A total of 78 per cent of Parties stated that they plan to or will possibly use at least one type of voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Use of cooperative approaches referred to in Article 6, paragraph 2, was most frequently communicated (by 52 per cent of Parties), followed by use of the mechanism established by Article 6, paragraph 4, (34 per cent) and general use of voluntary cooperation (25 per cent).